Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,635,417$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,506,766.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 63.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,506,766.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $127,417$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120,487.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.4)}}\) (asimptote \(120,487.2\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,787,369$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $106,097$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,862.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(103,862.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,650$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,524.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,524.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,327$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $226,089$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(5.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335,936.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 92.0)}}\) (asimptote \(335,936.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,769$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(742 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,476.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 84.6)}}\) (asimptote \(42,476.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,782$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $33,550$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{384,673.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 188.0)}}\) (asimptote \(384,673.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $631$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(48.2 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{787.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 86.6)}}\) (asimptote \(787.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,174$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,568$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,394.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 89.7)}}\) (asimptote \(44,394.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $747$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(120 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{727.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 52.9)}}\) (asimptote \(727.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,241$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $19,558$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(151 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $497$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(25 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,151.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 104.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,151.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,001$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,096$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(167 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,719.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 93.9)}}\) (asimptote \(28,719.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $773$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.91 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,033.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 77.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,033.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,129$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,438$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(171 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,388.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 91.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,388.6\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $174$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.69 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,494$ on 2020-06-30
